2004 Presidential Election (October 2006)

Hi Everyone,

What theory best fits our observations?

Observation #1: The exit polls were terribly wrong in the 2004 presidential election. They showed that Kerry won the election, but the official vote count showed that Bush won the election.

Theory #1: The exit polls were wrong because the people who voted for Bush were less willing to talk to exit pollsters than people who voted for Kerry. Therefore the exit polls over-reported the Kerry vote.

Theory #2: The exit polls were wrong because the Republicans managed to shift votes from Kerry to Bush. That is, they tampered with the vote to make the official vote count different from the count that would have resulted from an honest election.

Question: Did Kerry not contest the vote in Ohio because he wanted to run for president again? Did he feel that contesting the vote would stir enough feeling against him that he couldn't run again?

Time to sign off for tonight!